Formula 1 is ten weeks from its scheduled finale and still cannot say whether it will happen. The Qatar Grand Prix on 29 November and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on 6 December remain on the calendar, but the sport has made no decision on whether it is safe to race in the Gulf while the war involving Iran continues. A RaceFans report this week says money is one of the reasons the call keeps getting pushed back. Here is what is at stake, and why cancelling two races is harder than it looks.

Where things stand

The Middle East has already cost F1 one race this year. The Bahrain round was moved to Sepang, keeping its title on the calendar, as we explained in why the Bahrain Grand Prix is in Malaysia. FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem has said the governing body will not “jump the gun” on the season’s final two rounds. When F1 published the 2027 calendar last week, it opened next season in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia while holding a contingency plan to start elsewhere. Nobody has said anything definitive about this December.

Why money matters

Race hosting fees in the Gulf are among the highest in the sport, and they are paid by governments with long contracts. Cancelling a race is not the same as refunding it. Depending on how the contracts treat events outside either party’s control, a cancellation can raise questions about who owes what, whether a race can be moved rather than lost, and what happens to the following year’s payment. Two lost Gulf races would be a real dent in the sport’s income, and in the prize money the teams share. Holding off lets F1 keep every option open until the last responsible moment.

The same logic applies to the teams’ own planning. Freight for the final flyaways moves weeks in advance, and the season’s final block runs Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi on consecutive fortnights. A late cancellation is expensive. An early one might be unnecessary.

The hedges already in place

Formula 2 has added an extra feature race to its Baku round this weekend, and insists its Qatar and Abu Dhabi rounds are still on. Most observers read the extra race as insurance: if the Gulf rounds go, F2’s championship still has enough races to be decided. Ferrari’s test at Imola this month prompted suggestions the circuit could host a replacement finale, though nothing has been confirmed. Moving a race means finding a venue with an FIA Grade 1 licence, staff, and a promoter willing to organise a Grand Prix in eight weeks, in November, in Europe.

What it means for the championship

If both races are cancelled, the season ends in Las Vegas on 22 November after 21 rounds, and 50 fewer points are available. Kimi Antonelli leads George Russell by 81 points after Madrid. Our title permutations guide already models the shortened season: with nine rounds left, including the two Gulf races, the realistic clinch is Mexico City. Without them, it moves forward, and Austin on 25 October becomes a live possibility. The midfield would feel it too. Several constructors’ positions are separated by single-figure points, and losing two races freezes a table the teams expected to keep fighting over.

When will F1 decide?

There is no public deadline. Practically, the sport needs to decide before freight for the final flyaways leaves Europe, which puts the realistic cut-off in late October. Until then, expect repeated statements that both races are on, and expect the paddock not to quite believe them.

Frequently asked questions

Are the 2026 Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix going ahead?

They remain on the calendar for 29 November and 6 December, but F1 and the FIA have not confirmed they will happen because of the war involving Iran.

Why hasn’t F1 cancelled them yet?

A RaceFans report cites financial concerns. Gulf hosting fees are among the sport’s largest, and cancelling early could be costly if racing later proves possible.

What happens to the title if they are cancelled?

The season ends in Las Vegas after 21 rounds with 50 fewer points available, which could bring Kimi Antonelli’s title clinch forward.

Could another circuit host the finale?

Possibly. Imola has been mentioned after Ferrari tested there, but no replacement has been confirmed.